NHL Weekend Preview 12.31
The Weekend Preview is back! After a short hiatus during which players and fans alike shared merriment and crushed brews by an open fire, the NHL has returned to action, and this weekend features some high octane matchups. We start off with a deep dive into a team from Western Canada that’s struggling to live up to expectations after a long postseason run, before heading to Denver for a must see matchup between the defending champs and a team that’s hoping to take Lord Stanley from them in June (provided they make it out of the first round for once).
Edmonton Oilers
Friday 12/30 10:00pm EST @Seattle
Saturday 12/31 10:00pm EST vs Winnipeg
Expectations were sky high this year in Edmonton after Connor Mcdavid, Evander Kane, and a one legged Leon Draisaitl dragged a subpar Oilers roster kicking and screaming to the Western Conference Final. They thought they had shored up their perpetually unreliable goaltending by paying Jack Campbell $25million dollars over the next 5 years, and expected improvements from their bottom 6 forwards and blue line after a full training camp under head coach Jay Woodcroft.
So far, none of those offseason hopes have panned out as Edmonton sits just below the playoff line behind Calgary, Seattle, and Colorado thanks to a 19-15-2 record for 40 standings points. They’re trending in the wrong direction, going 5-3-2 in their last 10 including regulation losses to the bottom feeding Ducks and the dramatically turmoiled Canucks.
Campbell has been awful, posting an 8-6-1 record with a save percentage of .876 and a 4.02 goals against average, while saving an abysmal 13.8 goals below average. These struggles have cost him his starting job to young standout Stuart Skinner, who’s looking like the guy they should have turned to for their questions in net all along. With a record of 11-9-1, a .916 save percentage, and a 2.81 goals against average, Skinner has been solid behind a dreadful defense that’s posting the 6th highest expected goals against total in the league at 78.8.
The blame for Edmonton’s disappointing first half of the season rests squarely on the shoulders of GM Ken Holland and his pro scouting staff. Rather than recognizing Skinner’s potential (in limited action last year he posted a .913 save percentage and 2.62 goals against average behind a porous defense) they committed a massive chunk of cap space to a guy who has been inconsistent outside of a few hot stretches surrounded by a great team. Campbell’s $5million per season could have been put to much better use addressing the glaring deficiencies of Edmonton’s shaky D corps or shallow forward depth, as quality players like Frank Vatrano, Nino Niederreiter, Nick Deslauriers, Ilya Lyubushkin, Oskar Lindblom, Colin Miller, Dominik Kubalik, and Brendan Smith each signed with other teams for lower cap hits and less term.
The Oilers depth issues have been exposed to an even greater degree in the absence of Evander Kane. The star power forward showed instant chemistry with Edmonton’s big guns after joining the team last January (he notched 22 goals and 17 assists in 43 games on Mcdavid's wing before exploding for 13 goals and 4 assists through 15 games in the run to the conference final). He started this season at nearly a point per game pace with 5 goals and 8 assists in 14 contests before a horrifying encounter with Pat Maroon's skate blade sent him to the hospital and his team has barely been above .500 since posting an 11-5-2 record. With no timetable for Kane's return, it sure would be nice to have one or more of the free agents mentioned above available to step up and replace his production, but Holland opted for a $5million backup goalie instead.
This weekend features a difficult back to back matchup with two teams the Oilers are trying to chase down in the standings. They head into Seattle Friday night with an opportunity to jump over the Kraken for 4th place in the Pacific with a win, landing them in a wildcard spot. They’ll then return home where the rested Winnipeg Jets will be waiting for a chance to take advantage of Edmonton on the second half of a back to back. If Mcdavid and company can somehow sweep this tough weekend slate, they’ll gain some valuable ground in an airtight playoff race. If they don’t get at least two points from the back to back, they’ll lose even more ground, and the pressure will be on to turn things around before they start running out of the racetrack.
Players To Watch
I could make this entire section about one man: Connor McDavid. He’s once again leading the league in goals(31), points(67), and “OH MY GOD DID YOU JUST SEE THAT????” moments. He’s the most electrifying offensive player in the game by a mile, drawing attention from everyone in a 10 mile radius every time he touches the puck. He regularly creates chances for himself and his teammates out of nothing with his blistering speed, silky hands, and next-level hockey sense. He’s the primary reason Edmonton has been remotely competitive in recent seasons, creating more than 52% of the team’s offense by recording a point on 67 of the Oiler’s 128 total goals this year. He’s riding a casual 16 game point streak into Friday’s game and doesn’t look to be slowing down anytime soon.
Leon Draisaitl has been the only other guy on this roster (and in the league) to come close to Connor’s astronomical production, regularly taking home 2nd in the Art Ross scoring race and even winning one of his own along with MVP honors in 2019-20 when McDavid went down with an injury. He’s got a great shot and is an elite passer, especially on his backhand thanks to his hilariously wide, flat stick blade. Try to catch a glimpse of it when the camera pans to him on the bench, it looks like he attached a 2x4 to the bottom of his shaft and it’s mind boggling that anyone can play with that thing, but it’s hard to argue with the 21 goals and 36 assists he’s produced with it this season. The big German normally centers Edmonton’s 2nd line, but look for him to bump up to McDavid’s wing if the Oilers trail in the 3rd period and need an offensive spark.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has flown under the radar in recent seasons, enjoying slightly softer defensive matchups in a third line role as opposing teams deploy their shutdown pairs against the two previously mentioned superstars. He’s found a way to produce even without quality wingers, with 18 goals and 23 assists for 41 points on the season and has been hot lately with 7 goals and 7 assists in his last 10 games. While he’s shown the ability to create offense by himself at 5 on 5, more than half his production has come in between McDavid and Draisaitl as the bumper on Edmonton’s lethal powerplay. He’s tallied 6 goals and 16 helpers with the man advantage so far this season.
Zach Hyman is really the only other player really worth talking about on this top-heavy squad. He’s one of the few quality free agent additions Ken Holland has made in his tenure as Oilers GM, his hard nosed net front play and ability to retrieve pucks by winning board battles has been the perfect compliment to the high flying skill of McDavid and Draisaitl. His first season in Edmonton resulted in career highs in goals (27), assists (27), and points (54), and he’s on pace to shatter those numbers this year with 15 goals and 22 helpers for 37 points in only 35 games.
Keys To The Games
The fact that Edmonton is even in the playoff conversation despite the limp-dick performance of 80% of their roster sheds light on just how great the other 20% has been. The 4 guys in my “Players To Watch” segment have scored 85 of the team’s 128 goals this season, In other words, 20% of the players on this team have accounted for 66% of their goals. Simply calling them top-heavy is an understatement, and their opponents this weekend should be drooling at the opportunity to match their 2nd and 3rd scoring lines against the Oilers’ flaccid depth players.
The ability of Edmonton’s elite stars to outscore the team's problems is clearly the biggest key to victory in both of these games, and their best chance to do that is when opposing players are sent to the penalty box. McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, and Hyman are joined by offensive D-man Tyson Barrie to form the most lethal power play in the league. They’ve scored 42 goals on 130 opportunities, an eye popping conversion rate of 32.31% (almost 3% higher than 2nd place Buffalo who convert 29.37% of the time) and if they can somehow maintain it throughout their remaining 46 games, they’ll break the single season record of 31.9% held by the Montreal Canadiens since 1978.
The Oilers have relied on their power play far too often to bail them out of games they probably should have lost, their 42 power play goals make up 32.81% of their total offense, and McDavid’s 35 power play points comprise more than half of his lofty season total of 67 (52.24%). This weapon should be pretty effective against a Kraken penalty kill that’s only been successful 69.16% of the time, ranking them 2nd to last in the league, but against the Jet’s 8th ranked unit (81.44%) they may not be able to count on it as much.
Seattle likes to get into shootouts, a trait that should help Edmonton’s chances against them. The Kraken are averaging 3.48 goals per game (6th in the league) and were involved in the highest scoring contest of the year, winning a 9-8 barnburner against the Kings in overtime. They've allowed 3.21 goals against per game, putting them in the middle of the pack at 15th, but that average has jumped to 3.7 in their last 10 games, and it’s reflected in their 3-6-1 record over that span.
Unless their goaltending improves it could get even uglier, Martin Jones has fallen off a cliff from his respectable early season numbers, dropping his season save percentage to a hideous .888. Phillipp Grubauer has been better by the slimmest of margins since returning from injury, posting a save percentage of .889. This is definitely a winnable game for the Oilers if they put in a little effort on their own side of the red line.
Winnipeg presents a much greater challenge, as the Jets are playing airtight defense under new head coach Rick Bowness. Anyone who manages to slip through the fortress of the Jet’s blue line is met with the brick wall that is Connor Hellebuyck, an absolute scoring chance eraser who’s posted an impressive .926 save percentage and 2.37 goals against average while saving a whopping 18 goals above average. To add to the challenge, the Jets will be kicking their feet up and game planning while the Oilers duke it out in Seattle Friday night, so Edmonton’s high octane offense may look a little sluggish after a couple periods against the well rested boys from Winnipeg. It’s going to take a clean, organized effort from the entire roster in all three zones for the Oilers to have a chance in this one, and dogs like Hyman or rugged winger Mattias Janmark are going to have to find a way to get some ugly ones past Hellebuyck by battling for rebounds in the blue paint.
Toronto Maple Leafs @Colorado Avalanche
Saturday 12/31 10:00pm EST
Toronto earned the final spot in our top five when we put together our power rankings last week, thanks to their 22-8-6 record that puts them at 3rd place in the entire NHL standings with 50 points, and they look to become even more formidable with number 1 D-man Moran Reilly returning from injury. They’re playing the best defense of the Auston Matthews era, allowing only 2.56 goals per game (2nd in the league behind the impenetrable Boston Bruins) and have finally found a bottom 6 forward group that can chip in offensively to take some pressure off of their big guns. They’ve got two solid options in net, with Matt Murray posting a .919 save percentage and 2.47 goals against average while splitting starts with Ilya Samsonov who boasts similar numbers of .920 and 2.20. Imagine everyone’s surprise when they succumbed to the perpetually rebuilding Arizona Coyotes in an ugly 6-3 loss Thursday night, allowing the Dessert Dogs to sweep the season series.
These sorts of hiccups happen over the course of an 82 game season, and rust may have been an issue for Reilly in his first game back as he logged over 20 minutes of ice time to the tune of 1 assist and a -3 rating. Despite the loss, the leafs are an impressive 7-3-0 in their last 10 games and will be hungry to erase the memory of Thursday night’s disaster with a strong performance against the reigning cup champs.
The Avs seem to have emerged from their Stanley Cup hangover and look better and better every week, even without superstar center Nathan MacKinnon and captain Gabe Landeskog. They’re 6-2-2 in their last 10 games, and are steadily climbing the standings after a slow start. They carry a record of 19-12-3 into Saturday’s game and currently occupy the 1st wild card spot in the Western Conference with 41 points. Ironically enough, that stretch included an identical 6-3 loss to the Coyotes in their first game back from the NHL’s 3 day holiday break, so I guess you could call this one the Arizona Bounce-Back Bowl.
Head coach Jared Bednar will be expecting 110% effort from his entire lineup to match up with one of the most well balanced teams in the league. This game is more than just a measuring stick for Colorado, they desperately need the two points at stake to continue their climb out of the crowded playoff bubble and into their rightful place in the Central Division’s top 3.
Players To Watch
Maple Leafs
William Nylander is coming off the best season of his career, notching 34 goals and 46 assists for 80 points and has been even better through 36 games this year. His 21 goals lead the Leafs (which is pretty impressive considering he’s on the same team as Auston Matthews) and he’s chipped in 19 assists to bring his point total to 40. If this scorching pace continues he’ll end up with 47 goals, 43 assists, and 90 points, and his cap hit of $6.9 million (once criticized as an overpayment) will look like one of the best bargains in the league.
The aforementioned Matthews is off to a slower start offensively than we’re used to seeing, but that’s only because he’s set the bar higher than the city in which he’s about to play. His 17 goals and 23 assists tie him with Nylander for 2nd in team points with 40, and he’s been known to score in bunches so maybe the altitude in Denver will inspire him to bury a few more and approach the mile high standard he’s set for himself. His play away from the puck is more than making up for the slightly slower goal pace than what we’re used to seeing. He’s logging more than 20 minutes per night and posting a 53.8 Corsi for percentage while matching up against the top lines of opposing teams, and he’s 2nd on the team in takeaways with 34, only 2 back of the team lead which belongs to Mitch Marner.
Speaking of Marner, the well rounded winger has been an assist machine, setting up his teammates 28 times and potting 13 goals of his own to lead the Leafs with 41 points (32 of which came during a franchise record 23 game point streak). His takeaway numbers tell us he’s doing his job away from the puck too, and he’s beginning to silence the legions of insane Leafs fans who’ve called him soft throughout his 7 year career.
Avalanche
Cale Makar is the best hockey player in the world. I’ve said it before and I’m sticking to it. McDavid is the best offensive player in the world, and I’ve already dedicated the first half of this article to his accolades, but he usually doesn’t do much once the play crosses over to his side of the red line. Makar, on the other hand, makes an impact on every square inch of the playing surface. He skates unlike anyone the world has ever seen, using deceptive crossovers and mohawk turns to twist opponents into pretzels before effortlessly breaking the puck out of his zone or gliding into a high danger scoring area. On the rare occasion that he turns the puck over, he can be counted on to erase any potential scoring chance before it can develop by aggressively closing his gap or backchecking like a whipped mule to recover his positioning and break up the play. There’s a reason Wayne Gretzky compared him to Bobby Orr after his 5 point performance helped the Avs complete a sweep of McDavid and company in last year’s Western Conference Final, and the sky's the limit for this 24 year old prodigy. He’s got 9 goals and 25 assists for 34 points, 2nd on the team behind dynamic winger Mikko Rantanen, and his 33 takeaways lead the team. He also has the highest possession numbers among Avs that have played all 34 games this season, with a 54.7 Corsi for percentage. Keep your eyes glued to the screen when he’s on the ice because you don’t want to miss a second of this kid’s performance.
Mikko Rantanen is carrying the load offensively while his normal running mates are out of the lineup, setting his teammates up for 21 goals while scoring 24 of his own for 24 points so far. He’s on pace to break the 50 goal and 100 point barrier for the first time, shattering last year’s career highs of 36 and 92. He’s done this by elevating the play of usual depth forwards JT Compher and Artturi Lehkonen, who are both scoring at the highest rates of their careers while filling in for MacKinnon and Landeskog.
Keys To The Game
Both squads are going to bring their best in this one, so expect a tight checking, back and forth affair. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go to overtime, as both sides feature clutch goal scorers and are no stranger to tying things up with the goalie pulled in the last minute of the third. There’s tons of offensive talent between these teams, but they’ve really stepped up their defensive prowess this season so I don’t expect there to be much open Ice 5 on 5. For this reason, special teams should play a big role in this game.
Both power plays rank in the league’s top 10, with Colorado holding a slight edge at 6th (26.96%) over Toronto’s 10th ranked 24.78%. The Leafs should see that rate increase with Rielly’s return to the point, his elite passing ability from the top of their 1-3-1 setup has been sorely missed, and he’s going to be motivated to perform after his disappointing return in Arizona.
Even if the power plays generate chances, they still have to find a way to beat the men between the pipes. Each team has two reliable goalies, with Alexander Georgiev and Pavel Francouz rotating to give Colorado the 4th best team save percentage in the league (.914). Murray and Samsonov are actually performing at a higher level than the Avs’ tandem, averaging .920 between them, but 19 games of 3rd stringer Erik Kallgren and his .898 save percentage drop the team total to .910, good for 8th in the league. Now that the top two guys are healthy, that average should continue to rise. It’s hard to tell who will get the start for each team this early, but no matter who we get to see they’re going to put on a show.
