NHL Weekend Preview 01.07.23

      This week's preview focuses on a small market team from the Central Division that stormed back after a hideous start, and they now set their eyes on building a cushion between themselves and the ravenous mob of bubble teams vying for their playoff spot. Also on the docket is a heavyweight clash for first place in the Pacific, and a bitter rivalry between two young teams moving in opposite directions in the Metropolitan Standings 

Minnesota Wild

Saturday 1/7 7:00pm Eastern @Buffalo

Sunday 1/8 7:00pm Eastern vs St. Louis

      I wasn’t very high on the Wild coming into this season, they had lost huge piece in the departure of Kevin Fiala, along with the quality depth of Nick Bjukstad, Nicolas Deslauriers, and Jordie Benn thanks to a cap crunch created by recent buyouts of franchise icons Zach Parise and Ryan Suter. They also lost Cam Talbot after acquiring Marc-Andre Fleury at the trade deadline and handing over the former’s starting job, leading to frustration and an eventual trade request. 

      Minnesota always found a way to outscore their problems last year and salvaged a ton of standings points by tying games late with their goalie pulled for an extra skater. Fiala’s loss seemed like too big a hurdle to clear if they were going to continue that style of play, and it certainly looked that way through the first month of the season. The Wild lost their first 3 games, averaging 4 goals in each while giving up Satan’s average of 6.66. They went on to muddle their way through the rest of October and most of November, with a record of 9-8-2 leaving them well below the playoff line and inspiring GM Bill Guerin to make a move.

      Enter Ryan Reaves. The undisputed heavyweight champ of the NHL had been struggling to crack a highly skilled Rangers lineup, and New York made the classy decision to look for a trade partner so one of the most likable guys in the locker room and most feared on the ice could see regular playing time once again. Guerin recognized the need for size, strength, and leadership based on his team’s first 19 games and pulled the trigger, sending a 5th round pick to the rangers for Reaves’ services. 

      The jovial veteran injected a ton of energy into the Wild on and off the ice, boosting the mood in the locker room and pumping opposing tough guys’ eyes shut with the cinder blocks he calls fists. Since his arrival in the State of Hockey, Minnesota has posted a dominant record of 13-5-0, playing with confidence in all 3 zones and steadily climbing past the playoff bubble to take control of 3rd place in the Central Division. 

      This weekend presents a challenging back to back in which they’ll travel to Buffalo to try and shut down the high scoring Sabres before returning home for a chance to avenge last year’s playoff loss against the streaky St. Louis Blues who are trying to chase them down in the standings. 

Players To Watch

      Kirill “The Thrill” “Dolla Dolla Bill” Kaprizov or as many choose to call him “the most exciting player to ever suit up for the Wild”. The Russian phenom was hyped to the moon while Minnesota patiently waited on his KHL contract to expire after drafting him in the 5th round (what a steal) in 2015. Once he was finally allowed to leave the clutches of CSKA Moscow, he lived up to the hype and then some, ripping up the league with 27 goals and 24 assists in the Covid shortened 55 game 2020-21 season, winning the Calder trophy for rookie of the year and giving the Wild a dynamic offensive lightning rod the likes of which they’d never seen. He blew those numbers out of the water last year, burying 41 goals and assisting on 61 more for 108 points in 81 games, and with a stat line of 22g-25a-47pts in only 37 games he’s on pace to break 100 points again this season. Every time he touches the puck he lifts fans out of their seats and makes defenders shrink in terror, his creativity and filthy hands make him incredibly unpredictable and he regularly makes highlight reel plays out of nothing.

      Mats Zuccarello has built exceptional chemistry with Kaprizov, lining up on the opposing side of the ice to form one of the few elite top lines in the league that’s driven primarily from the wings. During their time together, coach Dean Evason has been able to plug and play anyone he chooses into the center slot between knowing they’ll be able to produce offense, a rare luxury he’s taken advantage of throughout the past two seasons. The duo has seen Victor Rask, Joel Eriksson-Ek, Freddy Gaudreau, Ryan Hartman, and Sam Steel (who we’ll talk about in a minute) line up between them at the faceoff dot and they’ve made beautiful music with each of them. Zuccarello has aged like a fine wine, he had a career year last season with 24 goals and 55 assists for 79 points, and he’s on pace to shatter those numbers with a stat line of 16g-24a-40pts through 37 games at the ripe age of 35. He’s an inspiration to short kings everywhere, standing at 5’8” while brandishing the longest stick I’ve ever seen. It’s almost comical to watch him skate around out there, drawing comments like “I have no idea how he’s able to stick-handle with that thing, it’s remarkable” from former Rangers teammate Brady Skjei. As weird as it looks, he’s used that California Redwood  to his advantage, exponentially increasing his radius of control to protect the puck when challenged by a defender or to steal it back from unsuspecting attackers. 

      Sam Steel is finally getting an opportunity to live up to his draft pedigree, and he’s taking advantage of it. The former first round pick was selected 30th overall by Anaheim in 2016, but never got much ice time in Orange county and his development stalled. The Ducks finally gave up on him after last season and let him walk in free agency, where the Wild scooped him up at a bargain price of $825,000 for the season. After spending the first 17 games of the season toiling in the bottom 6, Steel got his shot centering the top line November 19th against Carolina, rewarding his coach’s trust with a big goal to push the game to overtime and a beautiful assist on the game-winner. He hasn’t looked back since, with 5 tucks and 9 helpers for 14 points in 20 games since his elevation, while firing 41 shots on net and posting an impressive 53% Corsi for percentage. He’s done a great job of keeping up with the stars on his wings, while capitalizing on the openings created by the attention they draw from defenders. 

      I’ll close out this segment with a pair of impressive youngsters who’ve stepped up to fill the holes left by offseason departures, the first of which is promising blueliner Calen Addison. He’s playing a sheltered role at even strength on the Wild’s 3rd pair with veteran Jon Merrill, but has been a key part of the 12th ranked power play in the league, contributing 13 assists on the man advantage. 

      Matt Boldy burst onto the scene when he joined the team last January, providing a jolt of offense to the third line. He scored 15 goals and 24 assists for 39 points in 47 games, and is developing into an even more dangerous scoring threat this season with increased usage. He’s still on the third line, which gives Minnesota the luxury of deploying him against soft competition, but he’s averaging 17:37 of ice time per game, nearly 2 minutes more than last season. He’s turned in a stat line of 12g-17a-29pts in 37 games of action, and shows flashes of elite skill in the offensive zone which should become more frequent as his career progresses.

Keys To The Games

      Saturday’s matchup should be an electrifying offensive affair, featuring two of the hottest teams in the league as the Wild (8-2-0 in their last 10) take on Sabres squad that’s trying to claw their way back into the Eastern Conference playoff race thanks to a record of 7-2-1 in their last 10. The Wild haven’t had any trouble scoring during this stretch, they’ve averaged 3.5 goals per game, but Buffalo has been even better in this regard. Over the same span they’ve averaged 3.8 goals per game, pumping their season total to 142 which is tops in the entire NHL.

      The primary source of Buffalo’s otherworldly offense is the potent top line of  Alex Tuch and Jeff Skinner centered by scoring machine Tage Thompson. They’ve combined for 65 of the Sabre’s 142 goals and are ⅗ of the 2nd best power play in the league. Thompson’s missile of a shot is the most obvious threat when these guys are on the ice, but the Wild have to be careful not to overcommit to defending it because Skinner (who has a 50 goal season on his resume thanks to a pretty good shot of his own) is especially good at finding areas of open ice when defenders key on his center. As if that wasn’t enough to worry about, Tuch is a physical force with a nice set of hands that he puts to work in tight areas. His dogged determination to win board battles and retrieve rebounds extends plays and fuels the Sabres’ punishing offensive zone cycle, wearing out defenders and eventually forcing mistakes that usually end up in the back of the net. 

Expect Minnesota to embrace the old mantra that the best defense is a good offense, their goal should be to keep the puck away from Buffalo’s playmakers by possessing it on the sticks of their own stars as much as possible. The Sabres’ offense is elite, but they don’t play nearly as well in the defensive zone, as they’ve allowed 3.39 goals per game (11th most in the league). If the Wild can take the fight to them and minimize their offensive zone time, they should be able to win this barn burner. 

      This strategy should work for the Wild at even strength, but special teams could throw a wrench in all their plans. I’ve already mentioned Buffalo’s power play, but it’s impossible to overstate how much of a weapon it is. The top line is joined by dark horse Norris trophy candidate Rasmus Dahlin and 21 year old standout Dylan Cozens to form a deadly 5 man unit that converts on 28.15% of their opportunities. The Wild PK has been just ok this season, successfully killing off 79.53% of penalties (14th in the league) and it’s going to be punching above its weight when tasked with keeping the Sabres’ elite PP off the scoresheet. The best way to defend this nightmare is to keep them off the ice by playing disciplined hockey and staying out of the box, which could be a challenge because the Sabres are drawing an average of 3.75 penalties per game, good for 2nd in the league behind Ottawa at 3.78. The Wild absolutely cannot afford to lose their cool and take stupid penalties, otherwise this one could get out of hand early.

      Sunday’s game promises to be a war of attrition, as both teams are playing the second half of a back to back with lots of travel (St. Louis will be playing in Montreal Saturday night while the Wild duke it out in Buffalo). There’s no love lost between these Central Division rivals, Minnesota wants to avenge their first round loss from last year by creating more separation between themselves and a Blues squad desperately trying to catch them in the standings, so I expect them both to come out hard to open the first period. As the game drags on though, the miles of travel and effort exerted in Saturday’s games may wear on these teams and drag the pace of play into the mud. This is where Minnesota can take advantage of their depth and put another nail in the coffin of St. Louis’ season.

      The Blues will be without two of their most important forwards, Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko are both on the IR leaving gaping holes in a lineup that has struggled to find consistency even when healthy. They’re also missing one of their top defensemen and a key contributor on the power play in Torey Krug. They are going to need a herculean effort from their depth players to match up with Minnesota’s big guns, and will probably lean heavily on whichever goaltender gets the night off in Montreal. 

      The Wild should be fine here as long as they keep their focus, they have more talent on their roster than the injury riddle squad St. Louis will be rolling out, but on the second half of a back to back it can be easy to overlook a team you think you should beat. The Blues are an incredibly gritty, well coached team, and Craig Berube will be challenging their young players to embrace the bigger roles into which they’ve been thrust by aggressively forechecking and laying the body on a smaller Minnesota team. Expect Ryan Reaves to show his value here, he probably won’t get a ton of usage in Buffalo so he should be fresh and itching to beat the brakes off anyone with a music note on their sweater who takes a run at one of his teammates and provide a spark of energy for his road weary squad. 

New York Rangers @ New Jersey Devils

Saturday 1/7 1:00pm Eastern

      Whoever decided this game should be broadcast on NHL Network should be in jail. Seriously. This is the third time these young, electrifying, high scoring rivals have met this season and all three contests have been blacked out for anyone who doesn’t have a deluxe cable package. The NHL is always talking about how they want to grow the game, and partnering with ESPN+ and Hulu to stream out of market games has been a great way to do that, but when they put a game on NHL Network it cuts out 90% of their audience as the ancient network is not included in any streaming service and nobody under the age of 65 is still paying cable companies for 300 channels they don’t watch. If you do get NHL Network, please don’t take this as an insult, I just get way too worked up about the archaic system of broadcast rights we have in the US. If you’re one of the millions of people who don’t have access to the leagues luxury network, grab some friends and head over to Buffalo Wild Wings so you can crush some brews, eat some wings, and soak in this exhilarating clash of the Metro’s most exciting teams. 

      When these teams first met on November 28th, the Devils were in the midst of a torrid 18-1-1 stretch, and they handed a struggling Rangers squad their 3rd straight loss in a 5-3 thriller. The second meeting saw the tables turned, with the Rangers in the middle of a 7 game winning streak that they kept alive by burying an overtime goal to knock off New Jersey in an even more exciting 4-3 affair. That was the 2nd of 6 consecutive losses for the Devils, and they’re still trying to regain their early season consistency as they’ve gone 3-7-1 since that matchup in Madison Square Garden. 

      New Jersey’s recent struggles have burned up the huge cushion they built atop the Metropolitan Division standings, Carolina’s already overtaken them for first place and the Rangers only trail by a single point with an opportunity to jump their interstate rivals with a victory Saturday afternoon thanks to a red hot 10-2-1 run since December 5th. Matinee games are usually pretty sluggish in this league, but this should be an exception as these teams have a lot on the line and their rosters are overflowing with speed and skill.

Players To Watch

Rangers

      Artemi Panarin is probably the closest comparison to Kaprizov you can find. He’s incredibly creative, and one of a handful of guys who creates plays at an elite level from the wing rather than center ice. His passing ability is unmatched, especially when defenders close in on him. He uses their pressure against them by drawing them away from passing lanes through which he then rifles the puck to a wide open man for an easy tap-in goal. While most of his points are produced by setting up his teammates, he has a pretty good shot of his own, he’s hit the 30 goal mark in 3 seasons and the 20 goal mark in 3 more. He’s closing in on a big milestone with 198 goals in his career, and he’s hot right now, riding a 3 game point streak with 2 goals and 2 assists to help the Rangers win 3 in a row. He’d love nothing more than to join the 200 goal club against a bitter rival to help his team jump them in the standings, so look for him to shoot the puck more than usual in this one. 

      Speaking of 3 game point streaks, Adam Fox is riding one of his own with 4 assists, half of which have come on the Rangers’ red hot power play. The 2020-21 Norris trophy winner looks better every year, showing poise well beyond his age. He’s only 24 years old and the sky’s the limit for him, anchoring one of the youngest blue lines in the league. He’s leading New York in ice time, averaging 24:59 per game (more than 2 minutes more than anyone else) and is as well rounded as they come. He shuts down opposing forwards with reliable play in his own zone, and feeds the Rangers’ rush offense with clean breakout passes and impressive instincts that always seem to put him in dangerous scoring areas.

      Igor Shesterkin hasn’t played with the same consistency that won him the Vezina last season and dragged a defensively inept roster to the Eastern Conference final, but he hasn’t needed to thanks to the improved play of the team in front of him. He’s still one of the best goalies in the world, routinely robbing elite offenses of grade-A chances, and he’s rounding back into the impenetrable wall we saw last year after a shaky start. He’s posted a .929 save percentage in his last 10 games, including impressive performances against Tampa (39 saves) and Colorado (41 saves) bringing his season average up to .917. He seems to play better the more shots he faces, so look for a big night out of him if the Devils send an early game barrage his way.

Devils

      Last season, Jack Hughes was limited to only 49 games thanks to shoulder and knee injuries, but still had a breakout year with 56 points. He’s healthy now and picked up right where he left off, leading the Devils in goals (24) and points (46). The 21 year old is one of many young guns thriving in head coach Lindy Ruff’s fast paced offensive system, and is doing everything he can to get New Jersey back to the winning ways they exhibited early in the season as he rides a 4 game point streak (4g-1a) into Saturday’s afternoon affair. 

      Jesper Bratt flew out of the gate with an 11 game point streak to start the year, and looked like a dark horse Hart Trophy candidate with 10 goals and 20 assists in his first 30 games before hitting a slump through mid-December. He looks to be heating up again now, joining Hughes with a 4 game point streak of his own, assisting on 4 goals and scoring two of his own.

      Ondrej Palat returned to the lineup Thursday after recovering from a groin injury that’s kept him on the shelf since October 24th. The well respected veteran was a hell of a consolation prize after New Jersey missed out on the Johnny Hockey sweepstakes, hasn’t amassed mind blowing numbers in the regular season, but he's a big game player who shows up when it counts. Palat has 48 goals and 46 assists for 94 points in a whopping 138 playoff games, and he’s exceptional at all the little things that don’t show up on the scoresheet. His great anticipation allows him to pick off passes through the neutral zone and send them to his skilled linemates to turn up ice, making him the perfect fit for the Devils’ quick strike offense. He’s also great in his own end, pressuring defensemen at the point, closing off passing lanes, and retrieving pucks along the walls before breaking them out. He’s going to want to make an impact after being held off the scoresheet in his first game back, and there’s no bigger stage than this matchup against the Rangers.

Keys To The Games

      I mentioned the sluggish pace at which many of these matinee games are played, so a fast start for either team could give them an early edge if the guys across the ice are still trying to get their legs going. NHL players are creatures of habit, and a 1:00 start completely throws off their game day routine. Whoever is sharper from the opening faceoff should be able to build an early lead, especially with all the firepower on display from both these squads. 

      The Rangers have the clear edge in net, I’ve already gushed about Shesterkin and his pedigree against potent offensive teams like the Devils. Even if New Jersey can use their speed and skill to earn scoring chances, he still looms large in the crease. It’s anyone’s guess who will be between the pipes at the other end of the ice, as New Jersey has iced a rotating cast of goaltenders this season. One time Vezina candidate Mackenzie Blackwood has been getting a lot of starts lately as the franchise tries to rebuild his confidence after a myriad of injuries derailed his career, but he did not play Thursday after taking a puck to the head so his availability is questionable. Offseason signing Vitek Vanecek has started the most games of any Devils goalie this year, and he’s posted great numbers in most of his outings but is prone to implode occasional, turning in 4 performances this year with a save percentage in the .700’s (the latest of which came 5 starts ago when Carolina burned him for 3 goals on 13 shots). That being said, he’s had 4 solid performances since then, including Wednesday night’s blowout of Detroit in which he saved 32 of 33 shots. Maybe he’ll get the opportunity to build on that performance Saturday, but for the Devils to win this game their best bet is to keep the puck away from New York’s snipers and give their goalie an easy workload.

      Rush opportunities are going to be the theme of this contest, both offenses are centered around entering the zone with speed and control to take advantage of backpedaling defenders and eventually pulling the goaltender out of position with cross-ice or low to high passing. While some of these chances begin with a clean breakout from the defensive end, the vast majority of them come from neutral zone turnovers that leave opponents scrambling to recover their positioning. Creating these turnovers and transitioning up ice with speed has been the entire identity of this Devils team, but opponents have begun to recognize it and adjust their game plan to negate it by minimizing high risk/high reward plays and dumping pucks deep to let their forecheck work if they don’t have a safe option to enter New Jersey’s zone. The Rangers don’t normally play this type of game, they believe in the ability of their skill players to pull off aggressive neutral zone plays and they don’t necessarily have the personnel to retrieve dumps with a heavy forecheck. They want to go punch for punch with the Devils, and their transition game is just as good as New Jersey’s, so this should be an exciting affair with both squads taking chances to try to make something happen. Whoever wins this game, they’re going to do it with their play between the blue lines.

Los Angeles Kings @ Vegas Golden Knights

Saturday, 1/7 10:00pm Eastern

      The Vegas Golden Knights have made quick work of developing heated rivalries in the Western Conference thanks to their instant success, making an improbable run to the cup final in their 2017-18 expansion season and following it up with several vicious playoff series in subsequent seasons. Their first ever playoff opponent was none other than these Los Angeles Kings, and that tightly contested series was far shorter than it should have been as Vegas won all 4 games by a single goal. There’s been quite a bit of turnover between these squads since that battle, but many of the core pieces remain and will take the ice in the 3rd meeting of the season between the two top dogs in the Pacific Division. 

      Both teams are rounding into form as we approach the halfway point of the season. The Kings are 7-2-1 in their last 10 games, and appear to have found the solution to their goaltending woes in journeyman call-up Pheonix Copley. The Knights are coming off a similar stretch of 6-3-1, and just got a huge boost from the return of top line center Jack Eichel. LA trails Vegas by 6 points for first in the division, and they could gain valuable ground in the race with a win, while a loss allows the division leaders to grow the gap to a daunting distance.

Players To Watch

Kings

      Quinton Byefield came into the season with a lot of hype, his size and skill made him the 2nd overall pick of the 2020 draft, but he’s struggled to put it all together at the NHL level. After a disappointing 8 game start to the season, LA sent him down to the AHL to regain his confidence, and he responded in a big way, recording 9 goals and 6 assists in 16 games with the Ontario Reign. He was recalled to the big club and reinserted into the lineup in a depth role the last time these teams met on December 27th, but has only managed 1 assist in 5 games since his return. Rather than benching him or sending him back down, head coach Todd McLellan has decided to give him one last shot to make an impact on the season by elevating him to the top line. Skating alongside captain Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe, Byefield now has his best chance yet to prove he belongs in the show. Look for him to come out flying in this one as he battles to keep his seat on the team jet instead of returning to the long bus rides of the minors.

      Phillip Denault has been an exceptional addition to the LA lineup since signing as a free agent last year. He takes a ton of pressure off Kopitar by splitting the tough task of matching up with opposing teams’ top lines and taking key defensive zone faceoffs. He’s not bad offensively either, chipping in 13 goals and 17 assists for 30 points this season, good for 3rd in team scoring. 

      Pheonix Copley has started 11 of the King’s 15 games since he joined the squad following Cal Peterson’s demotion following a putrid performance against Seattle. LA’s goaltending has been a weak point all season, with both tendies allowing weak goals at inopportune times. Copley hasn’t been a world beater by any means, posting a modest .901 save percentage and 2.66 goals against average, but he’s reliably made most of the save you would expect an NHL goalie to make and the team is playing with a ton of confidence with him between the pipes, giving him a 9-2-0 record in his short run. 

Golden Knights

      Jack Eichel was dominant in his first game back from injury, he notched a goal and two assists as the Knights pounded the Penguins 5-2 Thursday night. The big outing brought his season stat line to 14g-18a-32pts in only 28 games of action. He’s clearly back to 100% and will be a threat every time he touches the ice.

      Mark Stone does it all for this team, he scores big goals and drives possession while shutting down opposing superstars. He’s 2nd on the team in scoring with 38 points and his 47 takeaways lead the Knights by a mile. Watch for him to sneak up on puck carriers before shooting out his stick like a lizard’s tongue to snatch it away and turn up ice. 

Keys To The Game

      This matchup features two goalies who have never been full time NHL starters before going up against two top 10 offenses, so expect a high scoring affair. Vegas has scored 136 goals on the year and LA comes in right behind them at 133, so Copley and Logan Thompson are going to have to be sharp in order to give their team a chance to win. This one could come down to whichever guy makes the biggest save in the biggest moment. 

      Special teams are always important, but this matchup has potential for a game changing play we don’t often see: the dreaded shorthanded goal. Vegas has the 16th ranked penalty kill in the NHL, clicking at 78.7% to put the right in the middle of the pack, but they’ve proven to be a sneaky threat when skating a man down. They’re tied for the league lead in short handed goals with 7 and underrated sniper Reilly Smith has 4 of them. The Kings on the other hand are tied for 3rd in short handed goals against with 6, so keep an eye on Smith and company every time they’re tasked with killing a penalty because they might just flip the script and bury one behind Copley.

Thanks for checking out this week's installment of the beerly hockey NHL weekend preview! I'm aaron kinney and I'm on the Beerly Hockey Podcast found anywhere you listen to podcasts!

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