Mid-Season NHL Power Rankings
Welcome to the first edition of the Beerly Hockey Power Rankings! With the NHL’s Christmas break sending players home to enjoy a few days off with their families, I wanted to turn a weekend without hockey into an opportunity to look at the top teams in the league and dive into the numbers behind their success nearly halfway through the season.
My Beerly Hockey Podcast co-hosts, Nate Mcbride and Phil Rasor, helped me narrow down the top 5 teams in the NHL through a points based ranking system and some spirited debate (multiple beers were harmed in the making of this episode). Each of us determined our top 5 teams based on their body of work so far this year then brought the lists together, awarding 5 points for each person’s 1st place team, 4 points for each 2nd place team, and so on and so forth down to 1 point for each 5th place team. The point totals were then tallied up to produce this list. Without further adieu, here are your Beerly Hockey mid-season power rankings!
Number 1: Boston Bruins
15 Power Ranking Points
Aaron-1st, 5 Points
Phil-1st, 5 Points
Nate-1st, 5 Points
Key Stats
Record: 27-4-3
Standings: 57 points, 1st in Atlantic, 1st in NHL
Goals For: 130 (1st)
Goals Against: 74 (1st)
Power Play Efficiency: 28.57% (3rd)
Penalty Kill Efficiency: 84.13% (3rd)
This one was easy, as the team with the best record in the league by a mile was the unanimous choice for first place honors. The B’s have 5 more standings points than any other team on this list thanks to a dominant 27-4-3 record, and they’re the only team in the NHL that has yet to lose in regulation at home (they’re 18-0-2 at TD Garden). With 57 points in 34 games, this team is on pace to finish the season at 137, enough to shatter the record for most points in a season (132, set by the Canadiens in 1976-77). This pace will be incredibly difficult to sustain over 82 games, it’s a long season and everyone goes through slumps at some point on the way to the finish line, but the Bruins are playing nearly perfect hockey right now with a loaded roster and if anyone can do it, they can.
I'm not going to lie, I had low expectations for the Bruins coming into this season. I thought their aging core, unproven goaltending, and a pile of early season injuries to key players would be too much to overcome and we'd witness the beginning of the end of this core's championship window. Boy was I wrong, the depth players GM Don Sweeny brought in stepped up in big ways to fill the roles of injured superstars, creating a launchpad for the team to take off once they returned.
Hampus Lindholm, fresh off an 8 year contract extension paying him $6.5 million per season, played at a point per game pace tallying 4 goals and 9 assists in 13 games anchoring the blue line until young stud Charlie McAvoy returned from offseason shoulder surgery. Up front, David Krejci looks even better than he did two seasons ago before taking a year off to play in his home country of Czechia. His 2 goals and 7 assists provided much needed offensive punch during Brad Marchand’s season opening 7 game absence.
Now that the team is healthy (Marchand and McAvoy have looked outstanding since they’ve been back) they are a force to be reckoned with. Krejci and fellow Czeck David Pasternak have meshed beautifully, and with contributions from offseason addition Pavel Zacha they’ve given Boston a lethal second line (something they’ve been missing in years past). Additionally, the veteran center’s return pushed Charlie Coyle down to the third line, a more suitable role for his skillset, where he’s found chemistry playing between Taylor Hall and Trent Frederic. All this adds up to the deepest group of forwards Boston has iced in years, and a matchup nightmare for opponents as they try to handle 3 scoring lines.
While the team as a whole is playing outstanding hockey, the most impressive area of Boston’s historic start to the season has been in net. Linus Ullmark is having a Vezina caliber year, leading the league in every major goaltending stat with 19 wins, a .936 save percentage, and a goals against average of 1.94. He’s getting a lot of help from responsible play in front of him (the Bruins have the 8th lowest expected goals against with 65.8) but that shouldn’t take away from just how good Ullmark has been. Even with the low XG totals he’s still saving a mind boggling 20.8 goals above average, making the Bruins nearly impossible to beat on any given night.
New head coach Jim Montgomery is looking like the runaway favorite to win the Jack Adams Trophy for coach of the year, a comeback story for the ages after losing his job behind the bench in Dallas due to some personal issues. He’s got this team playing with a ton of confidence as they’ve bought into his well balanced, fast flowing system, which allows players to attack the puck in all three zones knowing the guy behind them will be in the right spot to cover for any mistakes. Players have been raving all year about his crystal clear communication style, he makes sure everyone knows exactly what’s expected of them while inviting feedback from anyone willing to give it. He’s been an invigorating breath of fresh air for this group after years of Bruce Cassidy’s “my way or the highway” attitude that drove Krejci to originally leave the team and Debrusk to request a trade before rescinding it upon Cassidy’s firing.
The narrative going into this season was that of the 1997-98 Chicago Bulls, the last dance of a group of aging stars with contracts set to expire at the end of the year. Bergeron and Krejci signed team friendly, one year contracts for one final shot at a championship in Boston, and elite winger David Pastrnak is due for a massive raise from the $6.66 million dollars he’s making as he plays out the final year of his contract. Whether Boston hosts a parade this summer the way Chicago did in 98 remains to be seen, but it sure looks likely based on what we’ve seen so far.
Number 2: Carolina Hurricanes
9 Power Ranking Points
Aaron-2nd, 4 Points
Phil-3rd, 3 Points
Nate-4th, 2 Points
Key Stats
Record: 23-6-6
Standings: 52 points, 1st in Metropolitan, 2nd in NHL
Goals For: 107(20th)
Goals Against: 90 (5th)
Power Play Efficiency: 17.5% (27th)
Penalty Kill Efficiency: 80.67% (10th)
Beyond Boston, we were pretty divided about our picks. Carolina edged out the 3rd team on our list with 9 points thanks to being the only other team to make all 3 of our ballots. Carolina’s lofty spot on this list may have been influenced by a touch of recency bias, they just overtook the Devils for the top spot in the Metropolitan division thanks to a 9 game win streak and a 15 game point streak, boosting their record to 23-6-6 and putting them only 5 points behind Boston with a total of 52. They’re firing on all cylinders right now, applying relentless pressure to opponents under Rod Brind’Amore’s forecheck heavy system, and they’re getting exceptional goaltending from rookie Pyoter Kochetkov. Those things alone would be good enough to put them in the conversation for top 5 in the league, but the most impressive aspect of their current run is the fact that they kept it going without Sebastian Aho.
The star center was injured December 6th, missing 7 games with a lower body injury. He returned to the lineup December 23rd and is easing his way back into things playing sheltered minutes on the 2nd line and producing no points in 2 contests since. The good news is his absence never seemed to phase a Canes squad that has built an identity around scoring by committee and playing hard, responsible, consistent hockey no matter who is on the ice. Paul Stastny has been the poster boy for this culture, filling in admirably for Aho on the top line. He hasn’t lit up the scoresheet, tallying only a single goal and 8 assists on the season, but he’s been a possession juggernaut with a 62.5% Corsi rating. Captain Jordan Staal has been leaned on to shut down opposing top lines for years, but he’s stepped up offensively during Aho’s absence as well with 3 goals and 5 assists through the 5 game point streak he currently rides.
The only obvious point of weakness for this well rounded Canes squad has been their special teams, especially the power play. This is the area where Aho’s absence has been felt the most, as his creativity and crisp playmaking skills are not easily replaced. During his injury, Carolina scored only 3 times on 22 opportunities with the man advantage, a pathetic rate of 13.64% that has tanked their season average. Thankfully, their 5 on 5 play is so consistently great that the special teams struggles haven’t put a dent in their record, and with Aho’s return we should see that rate begin to climb again.
I’d be remiss if I ended this segment without mentioning two major pieces of this roster, both acquired in offseason trades that should have landed GM Don Waddell in prison for armed robbery. Brent Burns has been a cash cow since arriving in Raleigh at the expense of a few magic beans (two middling prospects and a 3rd round pick) and somehow is still receiving 33% of his salary from San Jose. This was the fleecing of all fleecings and is a prime example of a veteran league executive taking a rookie GM to the woodshed. Mike Greer didn’t have much leverage and Burns was one of a few tradable assets on an aging, expensive Sharks roster, but to give up peanuts for a former Norris Trophy winner who’s showing that he’s still got it at age 37 (Burns has 24 points from the blue line in 35 games this season) while also getting his former team to eat ⅓ of his salary is an exceptionally lopsided deal in the Canes’ favor.
The 2nd star offseason addition (Max Paciorrety, who unfortunately hasn’t seen the ice yet this season due to an achilles injury) was acquired for even less than the big blue liner, as Waddell sent precisely NOTHING to the Vegas Golden Knights in exchange for his services! Well, technically the trade was Pacioretty for “future considerations'' but we all know that’s just GM speak for “I need to get this player off my books because I’ve buried myself in salary cap hell and he makes too much money for me to keep him so here you go”. The veteran winger is expected to make his Carolina debut sometime in February, just in time for the stretch run leading up to the playoffs. He scored 19 goals and 37 points in 39 games last season, and should give the club a boost in the high end skill department along with helping their powerplay reach the heights you would expect from a contenter.
Number 3: Vegas Golden Knights
6 Power Ranking Points
Aaron-5th, 1 Point
Phil-Unranked, 0 Points
Nate-2nd, 4 Points
Key Stats
Record: 24-12-1
Standings: 49 points, 1st in Pacific, 4th in NHL
Goals For: 121 (6th)
Goals Against: 107 (17th)
Power Play Efficiency: 26.67% (7th)
Penalty Kill Efficiency: 75.82% (22nd)
Joining Carolina in the “we miss our top line center club” are the resurgent Golden Knights. They succumbed once again to their addiction to chasing the shiny new toy on the trade market when they rescued Jack Eichel from the antiquated medical staff in Buffalo, allowing him to have the artificial disk replacement surgery he desired to treat his neck injury rather than forcing him to fuse his spine together like the Sabres doctors were lobbying for because “that’s the way we’ve always done it”. I could write an entire article about the importance of body autonomy and players’ rights to choose how their injuries are handled, and maybe I will in the offseason, but this segment is about Vegas and just how good Eichel has been for them this season.
For a team loaded with big names, Vegas had still been searching for a franchise center since their inaugural season and they appear to have found him in the lanky American.
Eichel had been lighting it up in Sin City with 13 goals and 16 assists for 29 points in 27 games before succumbing to a lower body injury that’s kept him out of the lineup since December 9th. He helped the knights build a substantial cushion at the top of the Western Conference, but they’d better hope he returns soon because he’s an irreplaceable part of what they do. They’ve been treading water without him, going 4-4-0 during his 8 game absence, but their lead in the race for the top seed in the west has shrunk to only 1 point as the next team on our list has been surging up the standings.
Vegas has always been a team that relies on contributions from everywhere in the lineup, and after last season’s barrage of injuries they know how to manage the loss of a star player. Mark Stone was one of the big guns imprisoned on the IR last year, but he’s back to 100% now and doing everything he can to push Vegas over the championship hump. Stone is a dominant two way player and if he played down the middle instead of on the wing he would surely have won a Selke by now. He leads the team in takeaways by a mile with 41 (16 more than runner up Chandler Stephenson) and continues to provide offense in clutch situations (15 goals and 16 assists for 31 points on the season).
The aforementioned Stephenson has stepped up in a big way, filling in for Eichel on the top line and building on last year's breakout season of 21 goals and 43 assists for 64 points. He’s currently on pace for a career high 79 points after catching fire with 3 goals and 11 assists in 8 games since his elevation to 1C. He’s no slouch on the defensive side of the puck either, as evidenced by the takeaway numbers mentioned above. He and Stone have worked with the Knights’ elite defensive corps to control play and limit opposing teams scoring chances at 5 on 5, but unfortunately the blue line is missing a key piece of its own, as Shea Theodore went down with a leg injury in the same game they lost Eichel. He’s a do-it-all defenseman with elite playmaking instincts, and is currently listed as week to week so there is hope that he won’t be out for too long.
Luckily for Vegas, they can count on rookie goaltender Logan Thompson to help mask some of these holes in the lineup. He was handed the starting job by way of a long term injury to number 1 goalie Robin Lehner and has stepped up in a big way, boasting an 16-9-0 record while stopping .913% of shots to the tune of a 2.68 goals against average. While his save percentage and goals against average are respectable, they aren’t nearly as impressive as his 6 goals saved above average. For an unheralded rookie to be saving that many goals above average after being thrown into the high pressure starting job on a win-now team is incredible, and should pair nicely with the rest of his numbers to give him a solid case for the Calder trophy if he continues this pace throughout the season.
Number 4: Dallas Stars
5 Power Ranking Points
Aaron-Unranked, 0 Points
Phil-4th, 2 Points
Nate-3rd, 3 Points
Key Stats
Record: 21-9-6
Standings: 48 points, 1st in Central, 5th in NHL
Goals For: 128 (2nd)
Goals Against: 99 (tied for 11th)
Power Play Efficiency: 26.79% (6th)
Penalty Kill Efficiency: 82.93% (4th)
I have to hand it to Nate and Phil, the Dallas Stars are here because of them. I wanted so badly to put them in my top 5 but I sold myself on a couple other squads, bumping them off my ballot. This team absolutely deserves to be here though after their electric start to the season, with a massive uptick in depth scoring lead by resurgent seasons from veteran stars Tyler Seguin (7 goals, 17 assists, 24 points) and Jamie Benn (14 goals, 20 assists, 34 points) to support the herculean efforts of a top line that carried the team last year. Jake Ottinger has been every bit of the brick wall that nearly single-handedly upset the Flames in the first round of last postseason. He’s 15-5-3 with a .919 save percentage, 2.43 goals against average, and has saved a whopping 10 goals above average behind a new look blue line that doesn’t seem to miss the recently departed John Klingberg thanks to an offensive outburst from young stud Miro Heaskanen (5 goals, 21 assists, 26 points).
Remember that top line I mentioned? Jason Robertson is following up last year’s breakout season with a Hart Trophy campaign funded by 24 goals and 27 assists for 51 points in only 35 games, earning every penny of the 4 year $31 million contract extension he just signed. He’s composing an offensive symphony rivaling Beethoven’s 5th with underrated two-way center Roope Hintz (18 goals, 22 assists, 30 points) and ageless wonder Joe Pavelski (11 goals, 23 assists, 34 points). This all adds up to a comfortable spot atop the Central division with a realistic shot to overtake Vegas for the top spot in the entire Western Conference (Dallas trails the Golden Knights by only 1 point and has a game in hand).
New head coach Peter Deboer deserves a ton of credit for the Stars’ offensive explosion (they’re currently 4th in the league with 125 goals) as players in every role have been able to thrive in his fast paced, possession based system. Gone are the days of the sluggish defensive shell Dallas would shrink into under Rick Bowness, and a team often referred to as “boring” by the national media in seasons past has become must-watch television.
Race horses like Robertson, Hintz, and rookie Wyatt Johnson are given the freedom to make plays at the attacking blue line to enter the zone with control while thoroughbreds like Benn and Pavelski have the support to make aggressive plays along the walls and pounce on loose pucks in front of the net. This is all made possible by the support of a well rounded group of defensemen led by the elite Miro Heiskanen who always seem to be in the right spot to keep plays alive with a well timed pinch or hard working back check, and if anything gets by them Ottinger is there to erase it.
In hindsight, we should have seen this coming the moment Deboer was hired. He’s tasted unprecedented success in the first season of each of his last 4 stops as an NHL head coach, reaching the cup final in his inaugural campaigns with New Jersey in 2012 and San Jose in 2016 before eventually succumbing to rebuilds with each of those organizations. His most recent job in Vegas thrust him into a tumultuous Covid shortened season strangled by a quarantined playoff bubble through which he guided the Golden Knights to the Western Conference Final where they bowed out to the same franchise he finds himself coaching today. The first season Deboer bump can be attributed to his innate ability to get players of all ages and experience levels to buy into his highly structured style of play. He emphasizes puck control above all else, orchestrating clean breakouts that feed speed through the neutral zone and a well oiled offensive cycle that pins opponents in their own end until fatigue forces mistakes his playmakers can capitalize on.
Another hallmark of Deboer’s teams is a lethal powerplay, and this iteration of the Stars is no exception. They’re 6th in the league, scoring on 26.79% of their opportunities thanks to a perfectly balanced top unit with Heiskanen walking the blue line like a seasoned vet, feeding Robertson for one-timers or floating pucks towards the sticks of two of the best tippers in the league in Pavelski and Benn. As if that’s not enough to give penalty killers nightmares, Hintz floats around finding open ice for grade-A chances and pouncing on rebounds while defenders frantically try to recover their positioning. This is not a team you want to take penalties against.
Number 5: Toronto Maple Leafs
4 Power Ranking Points
Aaron-Unranked, 0 Points
Phil-2nd, 4 Points
Nate-Unranked, 0 Points
Key Stats:
Record: 22-7-6
Standings: 50 points, 2nd in Atlantic, 3rd in NHL
Goals For: 116 (9th)
Goals Against: 86 (2nd)
Power Play Efficiency: 23.42% (12th)
Penalty Kill Efficiency: 79.63% (15th)
Is everyone ready to apologize to Kyle Dubas for the barrage of criticism he endured after overhauling the Leafs’ goaltending in the offseason? Rather than overpaying Jack Campbell for his short run of success, he opted to let Ken Holland securely fasten Edmonton to that 5 year, $25 million anchor while buying low on a two time cup Champion he knew well from his days managing the OHL’s Soo Greyhounds in Matt Murray.
After a couple of rough seasons playing behind a porous Ottawa defense while dealing with injuries, Murray was ready for a change of scenery and the Senators were happy to oblige in order to clear some cap space to sign key young players and go big game hunting in free agency. They were so eager to move the 28 year old, they sent Toronto a 3rd round draft pick just to take him off their hands while eating 25% of his salary and asking for absolutely nothing (the good old “future considerations”) in return. This allowed the Leafs to bring in a goaltender with a longer (albeit less recent) track record of success than Campbell at a lower cost ($4.69 million cap hit vs $5 million) and shorter term (2 years remain on Murray’s contract as opposed to the 5 years Edmonton just committed to Campbell).
Don’t get me wrong, Murray’s struggles during his 2 year run with the Sens made this move far from a sure thing. He carried a record of 15-15-3 with a .899 save percentage and 3.22 goals against average over that span, regularly missing games with a myriad of injuries and even clearing waivers to be demoted to the AHL for a bit. Dubas was gambling that Murray’s recent struggles were a product of his environment and that he would revert back to his cup contending form if surrounded by a cup contending roster. So far that Gamble has paid off, as Murray has been unbelievable since returning from a hip injury sustained in an opening night loss to Montreal. In 11 games of action starting with an electric performance against his old Pittsburgh teammates November 15th, he’s gone 8-1-2 with a .932 save percentage and a 2.18 goals against average, effectively silencing his critics in the process.
While Murray’s resurgence has dominated headlines, he’s not the only goalie revitalizing his career in the center of the hockey universe. Ilya Samsonov, originally signed as an insurance policy in case Murray’s play faltered or his injury problems followed him to Toronto, has already paid off. Dubas brought in the 25 year old Russian on a 1 year deal for $1.8 million after he fell out of favor in Washington, and his solid play during Murray’s hip issue has earned him a healthy workload even after the starter’s return. He’s 11-3-0 on the year with a .920 save percentage and a goals against average of 2.20. This gives the Leafs’ current core the strongest goaltending depth they’ve ever had, allowing their superstars to play with a level of confidence they’ve never previously enjoyed.
All that confidence has manifested into the most complete Toronto team we’ve seen in years, with players up and down the lineup playing solid, structured hockey, chipping in offensively without giving much up on the defensive side of the puck. As always, the big 4 are setting the pace: Mitch Marner leads the team in assists with 28 and points with 41 thanks to a franchise record 23 game streak. William Nylander leads the team in goals with 21 and has 19 assists of his own for 40 points. Auston Matthews is having a slow start by his lofty standards, which is hilarious to say considering he’s potted 17 goals and 23 helpers for 40 points in 35 games. John Tavares brings up the tail end of the big guns with 15 goals and 17 assists for 32 points.
In previous seasons, when these players were tasked with carrying the team on their own, these numbers wouldn’t be enough to drag the Leafs to the lofty spot they currently occupy in the standings and the fanbase would inevitably be screaming for one of them to be traded. Thankfully, they’re getting plenty of help from the other 16 guys on the roster, and that’s ultimately what earned them the final spot in our power rankings. This team seems different from the top-heavy, fragile groups that have bowed out in the first round of the playoffs since Dinosaurs roamed the earth (it’s really only been 6 years in a row but at this point, what’s the difference?)
Beyond the big boys, Michael Bunting has built on his standout rookie season with 9 goals and 15 assists for 24 points while providing some physicality on the top line, while 7 other players have tallied double digit points in 35 games or less. One of these depth contributors, David Kampf, has anchored the 3rd line, an effective checking unit deployed by head coach Sheldon Keefe to take defensive zone faceoffs against opposing stars (he leads Leafs centers with a D zone start percentage of 72.8%). He also plays a key role on the penalty kill and is an underrated threat to score shorthanded every once in a while. This takes some tough minutes off Matthews, Marner, and Tavares and frees them up to do what they do best: put the puck in the net.
Perhaps the most impressive aspect of this Leafs team hasn’t even made its way into this article yet. If Toronto were to be compared to a certain elite Greek warrior, their D corps has always been his vulnerable heel, but not anymore. Even with a plague of injuries (most notably to top defenseman Morgan Reilly) the Leafs blue line has looked solid. Thanks to responsible play through big minutes from veterans Mark Giordano and T.J. Brodie, along with Justin Holl and Rasmus Sandin finally finding their footing in larger roles, the Leafs’ back end is making it difficult for opposing offenses to find their rhythm. They limit time in their own zone by making quick, simple plays to break the puck out to their elite forwards, and collapse well to keep opponents to the perimeter, making life a little easier for the guys between the pipes.
Keep in mind, we’ve seen great regular season runs from these Leafs in years past, so until they prove they can win in the playoffs we can’t quite count on them to be a contender in June. If they hit a rough stretch, lose another big gun to injury, or the goaltenders regress to the 2021–22 versions of themselves, this may be the last year for Kyle Dubas in Leaf Land considering he’s had over half a decade to make this thing work. If that happens, who knows which direction his successor may take the team, and I wouldn’t even rule out blowing the whole thing up and trading Matthews and or Nylander for a truckload of futures to start this whole process over again. That’s obviously the worst case scenario, but it illustrates the immense amount of pressure this organization is under to reach the goal they’ve been chasing since Lord Stanley made his last appearance in Toronto nearly 56 years ago.
Ballot Breakdowns
Aaron (Twitter: @Aaron_9)
1)Boston
2)Carolina
3)Tampa Bay
4)Pittsburgh
5)Vegas
Phil (Twitter: @PostGradPhil)
1)Boston
2)Toronto
3)Carolina
4)Dallas
5)New Jersey
Nate (Twitter: @StatGuyNate)
1)Boston
2)Vegas
3)Dallas
4)Carolina
5)Seattle
If you’ve stuck with us this far, you’re probably as addicted to this sport as we are. Let us know in the comments or on Twitter if you agree with our rankings or think we left someone out! Thanks for checking out The Beerly Hockey Mid-Season Power Rankings!
Thanks for checking out this Installment of the beerly hockey NHL Mid-Season Power Rankings! I'm aaron kinney and I'm on the Beerly Hockey Podcast found anywhere you listen to podcasts!
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